The city of Homs is resisting the assault of the jihadists who are blocked by the defense line established on the northern ring road. To break it, they could use suicide bombers like in Aleppo. Homs, a city with an Alawite majority today, is more difficult to conquer than the Sunni cities of Aleppo and Hama. The Russian air force is intensifying its strikes on the northern outskirts of Homs. The Syrian army has concentrated its forces on this strategic crossroads. The fall of the city would mean that the road to Damascus is open. It would also be the opening towards Tartous, the Russian naval base, and the Alawite country. However, there the jihadists are not at all on friendly place.
The south of Syria has tipped over. A general uprising has taken over the province of Deraa, the army has withdrawn towards Damascus to ensure the defense of the capital. The “reconciled rebels” were not so much, especially since they had been suffering the regime’s underhanded vengeance since the reconquest of Deraa in 2018. Maher al-Assad having taken back by force the small towns that benefited from an autonomous status according to the agreements between the rebels and Russia. The Druze militias of Sweida have driven the Syrian army and the moukhabarat from their territory. They show their sympathy for the rebellion, but do not participate in the battle against the regime.
Syrian Mosaic December 7, 2024 Fabrice Balanche
In the East, the SDF seized Deir al-Zor, Mayadin and al-Bu Kamal, the right bank of the Euphrates, which had been under the control of the regime since October 2017, after the defeat of Daesh. The capture of al-Bu Kamal, a town on the border with Iraq, is of considerable importance: the Iranian axis in the Levant is cut. The Syrian army and the Shiite militias have withdrawn from this highly strategic region through which Iranian weapons were transiting to Hezbollah. This also means that Iran has no intention of sending Iraqi Shiite militias to Syria to support Bashar al-Assad.
A great deal of confusion reigns in Damascus. Bashar al-Assad seems to have disappeared, it would be Maher al-Assad who would command the army from now on. However, the loyalist forces are in great confusion. The officers do not receive orders from their superiors. The speed of the jihadist advance and the uprising in Deraa destabilizes the command, while Iran and Russia are not sending support to the soldier Bashar. Have they understood that he no longer has any chance? At best, the Alawite regime could maintain itself in the coastal region with Homs. Damascus is under siege now and cannot be defended for very long in such a hostile environment.
